The Costs of Conflict: The Impact on China of a Future War

Publisher Marketing: There is a need for the United States to move the debate over the challenge China presents us beyond the dispositions of the attention grabbing advocates: the rationalizers who explain Chinese actions in benign terms with their own political or academic motives, or the denigrators, who are "The Chinese Are Coming" school-to wit: China is belligerent, a threat, in short, a monster. It is increasingly important for Americans to think carefully about the vast complexities of the U. S.-China relationship, and the calculations that go into forming courses of action. The Chinese have to consider some of the same realities we do when planning military actions and strategy. The key question is: will China's so-called first priority of economic development and its resulting influence on domestic social stability curtail China's continuing reliance on military force as a means of exerting its influence? In addition, will economic development enhance China's comprehensive national power and thus contribute to some of China's more unhealthy goals, such as dominating the South China Seas, seizing Taiwan by force, or grabbing the Senkaku Islands from Japan? Is the China-Taiwan economic dynamic strong enough to offset military adventurism? The rationalizers often say security and sovereignty will always trump economic determinism, others insist economic factors will change China-and thus decrease the chances of war, especially with China winning the 2008 Olympics. How this dilemma is managed by the United States, China, and Taiwan will affect the future of Asia, and perhaps the world. We have tried to present in this book factual and analytical essays which stress the need for squarely addressing thesequestions. So, this volume should make a valuable contribution by addressing the issue of what would be at stake for China if Beijing were to pursue military solutions. The chapters that follow were originally presented at a conference at the U. S. Army War College (USAWC) held in December 2000. It is the tenth annual conference on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) that I have organized under the auspices of the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation. This is the third PLA conference volume to be published by the USAWC Strategic Studies Institute. I commend it to you. Ambassador James R. Lilley Senior Fellow American Enterprise Institute Contributor Bio:  Scobell, Andrew ANDREW SCOBELL is Senior Political Scientist at RAND's Washington, DC, office. Prior to this he was an Associate Professor of International Affairs at the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service and Director of the China Certificate Program at Texas A&M University located in College Station, TX. From 1999 until 2007, he was an Associate Research Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute, U. S. Army War College and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Dickinson College, both located in Carlisle, PA. Dr. Scobell is the author of China's Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March (Cambridge University Press, 2003), he co-authored China's Search for Security, with Andrew J. Nathan, (Columbia University Press, forthcoming, 2012), he has written more than a dozen monographs and reports, as well as several dozen journal articles and book chapters. He has also edited or co-edited 12 volumes on various aspects of security in the Asia-Pacific region. He is a co-editor with Mr. Kamphausen and Dr. Lai of The PLA at Home and Abroad: Assessing the Operational Capabilities of China's Military (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U. S. Army War College, June 2010). Dr. Scobell holds a Ph. D. in political science from Columbia University. DAVID LAI is a Research Professor of Asian Security Studies at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the U. S. Army War College. Before joining the SSI, Dr. Lai was on the faculty of the U. S. Air War College. Having grown up in China, Lai witnessed China's "Cultural Revolution," its economic reform, and the changes in U. S.-China relations. His teaching and research interests are in international relations theory, war and peace studies, comparative foreign and security policy, U. S.-China and U. S.-Asian relations, and Chinese strategic thinking and operational art. Dr. Lai is a co-editor with Mr. Kamphausen and Dr. Scobell of The PLA at Home and Abroad: Assessing the Operational Capabilities of China's Military (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U. S. Army War College, June 2010). Dr. Lai holds a bachelor's degree from China and a master's degree and Ph. D. in political science from the University of Colorado.