Lessons from the Great Influenza

Those wh? ??nn?t r?m?mb?r th? past ?r? ??nd?mn?d t? repeat it. G??rg? Santayana, A reasonable u???r b?und f?r the coronavirus's m?rt?l?t? ?nd economic effects can be d?r?v?d fr?m the world's ?x??r??n?? with th? Great Influ?nz? P?nd?m?? (???ul?rl? and unf??rl? known ?? the S??n??h Flu1), wh??h began and ???k?d ?n 1918 ?nd persisted through 1920. Our ??t?m?t?, based ?n data d???u???d later ?n flu-r?l?t?d death rates f?r 48 countries, is th?t this pandemic killed ?r?und 40 m?ll??n ????l? w?rldw?d?, ??rr????nd?ng t? 2.1 ??r??nt ?f th? world's ???ul?t??n at the t?m?. Th??? numb?r? ?r? likely th? ???k ?f w?rldw?d? m?rt?l?t? fr?m a "n?tur?l d????t?r" ?n m?d?rn times, th?ugh th? ?m???t ?f the plague dur?ng th? bl??k death in th? 14th century w?? mu?h greater ?? a ?h?r? ?f th? population. S??n??h Influ?nz? ?f 1918-1919 k?ll?d m?r? than 50 million ????l? w?rldw?d? ?v?r th? ??ur?? of two ???r?.1 Th? true ?r?g?n of the 1918 influenza ??nd?m?? is unknown. During W?rld W?r I, ?r???g?nd? in war-engaged countries ?nl? ??rm?tt?d ?n??ur?g?ng n?w?, so ?? a neutral ??rt?, S???n was th? f?r?t ??untr? to ?ubl??l? r???rt on th? h??lth crisis. Thu?, S??n??h Influenza became a popular t?rm. H?w?v?r, h??t?r???l research h?? ?h?wn th?t S???n was an unlikely ??nd?d?t? ?? the initial ??ur?? and ??m? ?ugg??t that it ?r?g?n?t?d ?n K?n??? ?n the ??r?ng of 1918. Influ?nz? ??nd?m??? have ???urr?d regularly every 30 to 40 years ??n?? th? 16th ??ntur?. T?d??, influenza ?x??rt? ??n??d?r the possibility ?f ?n?th?r ?nflu?nz? ??nd?m??, not ?n t?rm? ?f if but when. Du? t? the h?gh l?k?l?h??d ?f an ?nflu?nz? pandemic, ?l?nn?ng ?? underway ?n many U. S. states ?nd other countries. W? r?v??w?d th? responses ?f two n??ghb?r?ng M?nn???t? ??t??? during th? 1918-1919 pandemic to g??n ?n??ght th?t m?ght inform ?l?nn?ng efforts t?d??.